Longford Town 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Longford Town vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Dundalk travel to Bishopsgate Stadium to take on Longford Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Longford Town stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Longford Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Longford Town's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Bishopsgate Stadium this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Dundalk have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dundalk are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Longford Town have won 0, Dundalk 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Longford Town trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dundalk trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Longford Town 50% and Dundalk 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Longford Town 42% | Dundalk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.75 xG and Dundalk 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.581 / defence 1.475 | Dundalk attack 0.812 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.196. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.581 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Longford Town games / 24 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 53%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 1.89. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Longford Town 40% | Dundalk 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Longford Town 0.75 / Dundalk 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.581 / def 1.475 | Dundalk attack 0.812 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Dundalk xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Dundalk kick off?
Longford Town vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Longford Town 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Longford Town vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Dundalk part of?
Longford Town vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 20% chance of winning, Dundalk a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Longford Town and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Dundalk?
Record (2 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Longford Town and Dundalk in?
Longford Town (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
20%
5.07
27%
3.69
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.18
1.43
Dundalk xG
5.07
20%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
5%
21.22
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.43 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Longford Town come into this having played 24 games, going 0W 7D 17L for 0.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Longford Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Longford Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Longford Town's home form reads 0W 3D 9L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (3W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Longford Town are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.17 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Longford Town and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 0W 7D 17L in their last 24 games (0.29 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 7W 7D 10L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.25 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Longford Town's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Longford Town
2
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Dundalk?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 1, Dundalk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Dundalk 2-0 Longford Town.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 33%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Longford Town) and 42% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Longford Town have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Longford Town play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Longford Town's recent matches and 67% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Longford Town vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Longford Town's recent games and 42% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and Dundalk tend to score early?
Longford Town have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Longford Town defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Longford Town beat Dundalk 1-0 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.75 xG and Dundalk 1.43 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.58 / defence 1.48 against Dundalk attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 20% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 53%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Longford Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 42%, Dundalk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Dundalk's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Longford Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Longford Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.