Drogheda United 3-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 42%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Drogheda United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Head in the Game Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Head in the Game Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bohemians are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 59% versus Bohemians 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 50% | Bohemians 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.14 xG and Bohemians 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.882 / defence 1.061 | Bohemians attack 0.669 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.200. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Drogheda United games / 22 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 42% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 27%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 70% | Bohemians 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 42% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Drogheda United 1.14 / Bohemians 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.882 / def 1.061 | Bohemians attack 0.669 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bohemians xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 3 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 42% chance of winning, Bohemians a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Bohemians (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.67x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 26/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.28
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.99
0.85
Bohemians xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.85 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 7W 6D 9L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians's form line: 10W 4D 8L from 22 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.55 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.59 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 10W 4D 8L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.20 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bohemians in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 70%, Bohemians 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Drogheda United) and 30% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 30% of games; Bohemians in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Drogheda United's games and 40% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Drogheda United's recent games and 30% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Drogheda United edge out Bohemians 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Bohemians 3-2 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.14 xG and Bohemians 0.85 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians attack 0.67 / defence 1.24, drawn from 26/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 42% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 27%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 50%, Bohemians 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.