Finn Harps 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derry City at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs Derry City encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Derry City travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps in Premier Division (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Finn Harps — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Finn Harps have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Derry City have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Derry City away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derry City are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Finn Harps, 2 for Derry City and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2022, ended Finn Harps 2–2 Derry City — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Derry City in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 55% versus Derry City 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 59% | Derry City 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Finn Harps surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Derry City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.86 xG and Derry City 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.758 / defence 1.155 | Derry City attack 1.276 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.066. Finn Harps's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Derry City have an above-average attack rating of 1.276, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 58 games and Derry City's last 58.

Result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 25% | Derry City 54%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 4.84 | Draw 3.95 | Derry City 1.85. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 30% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 50% (last 10 away games).

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