Dundalk 3-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dundalk (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 25 as Dundalk welcome Finn Harps to Oriel Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Dundalk have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 9W 1D 0L at Oriel Park — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Finn Harps stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Dundalk, 1 for Finn Harps and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dundalk in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 56% versus Finn Harps 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 46% | Finn Harps 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.51 xG and Finn Harps 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.312 / defence 0.710 | Finn Harps attack 0.946 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.093. Dundalk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Dundalk games / 59 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 76% | Draw 15% | Finn Harps 9%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Finn Harps 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 40% | Finn Harps 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 76% | Draw 15% | Finn Harps 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 48% | xG Dundalk 2.51 / Finn Harps 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.312 / def 0.710 | Finn Harps attack 0.946 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Finn Harps xG
48%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Finn Harps kick off?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 July 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Dundalk 3 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Dundalk vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Finn Harps part of?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 76% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dundalk and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Record (6 meetings): Dundalk 3W | Draws 2 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Finn Harps in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Finn Harps (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.59
9%
11.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.24
0.73
Finn Harps xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.59
15%
Draw
11.36
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
8%
12.27
Win to Nil
36%
2.74
1%
139.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.73 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk's recent record stands at 24W 18D 17L from 59 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Finn Harps, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 29L across 59 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Finn Harps heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 18W 4D 7L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Finn Harps's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.07 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Finn Harps
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 24W 18D 17L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Finn Harps away?
Dundalk's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.00 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Finn Harps have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 59%, Finn Harps 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Dundalk and 72% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Finn Harps in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dundalk's games and 59% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Dundalk's matches and 72% of Finn Harps's.
Do Dundalk and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Finn Harps 3-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.51 xG and Finn Harps 0.73 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.31 / defence 0.71 against Finn Harps attack 0.95 / defence 1.48, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 76% | Draw 15% | Finn Harps 9%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 46%, Finn Harps 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Finn Harps's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.