Derry City 0-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derry City face Cork City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as Derry City welcome Cork City to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 6W 2D 2L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cork City — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cork City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cork City have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Derry City are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derry City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cork City in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Derry City have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 6 past contests while Cork City have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Derry City winning.
The historical record gives Derry City a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Cork City trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derry City 50% and Cork City 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 42% | Cork City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.85 xG and Cork City 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.367 / defence 0.970 | Cork City attack 0.865 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.070. Derry City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 2.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.503 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Derry City games / 26 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 77% | Draw 14% | Cork City 9%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | Cork City 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 60% | Cork City 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 77% | Draw 14% | Cork City 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 56% | xG Derry City 2.85 / Cork City 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.367 / def 0.970 | Cork City attack 0.865 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Derry City (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.85
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cork City xG
56%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Cork City kick off?
Derry City vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 August 2025 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Cork City?
Derry City 0 - 0 Cork City.
Where is Derry City vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Cork City part of?
Derry City vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 77% chance of winning, Cork City a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derry City and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Cork City?
Record (6 meetings): Derry City 6W | Draws 0 | Cork City 0W.
What form are Derry City and Cork City in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Cork City (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 1.37x the league average against Cork City's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
77%
1.29
14%
7.38
9%
11.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.85
Derry City xG
Total xG
3.75
0.90
Cork City xG
1.29
77%
Home win
7.38
14%
Draw
11.14
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
6%
17.25
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
192.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Derry City and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.85 expected goals for Derry City and 0.90 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derry City's recent record stands at 12W 5D 9L from 26 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cork City, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 14L across 26 games — 0.69 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cork City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 6W 3D 3L from 12 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cork City's away record stands at 0W 2D 10L across 12 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.04 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cork City in 77%.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Cork City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Cork City in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Cork City have gone 3W 9D 14L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Cork City away?
Derry City's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.75 PPG; Cork City away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Derry City or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cork City in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derry City's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Derry City
1
Draws
0
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 7, Cork City have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Cork City 0-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Cork City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derry City at 67%, Cork City at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Derry City and 67% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Cork City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Derry City's games and 83% of Cork City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Derry City's matches and 67% of Cork City's.
Do Derry City and Cork City tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cork City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derry City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Derry City and Cork City drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.85 xG and Cork City 0.90 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derry City fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Cork City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.37 / defence 0.97 against Cork City attack 0.86 / defence 1.50, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 77% | Draw 14% | Cork City 9%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 42%, Cork City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cork City's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.