Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shamrock Rovers travel to Turners Cross to take on Cork City in Premier Division (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Friday 2 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cork City have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cork City's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2025, ended Cork City 1–4 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cork City trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 46% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | Shamrock Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.889 / defence 1.120 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.044 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.212. Data: built from Cork City's last 12 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 48.
Result probabilities: Cork City 27% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 44%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.64 | Draw 3.47 | Shamrock Rovers 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cork City's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cork City 40% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 13 | Venue: Turners Cross • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 27% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Cork City 1.08 / Shamrock Rovers 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.889 / def 1.120 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.044 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 2 May 2025 at Turners Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Cork City 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Turners Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 13) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 27% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cork City and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cork City's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cork City's last 12 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
27%
3.64
29%
3.47
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cork City and 1.42 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cork City's recent record stands at 8W 7D 22L from 37 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 9L across 37 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cork City have managed 6W 4D 8L from their last 18 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across their last 18 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cork City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Cork City (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cork City
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.22 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Cork City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 19 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won Shamrock Rovers 4-1 Cork City.
Cork City's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cork City
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2025: Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 44%, Shamrock Rovers 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cork City) and 44% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 33%; Cork City have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cork City and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cork City's recent matches and 56% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cork City's recent games and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cork City's recent matches and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cork City and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 1-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 12/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 27% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 44%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Shamrock Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.