Bohemians 1-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 13 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bohemians carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 1, Waterford 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 3–0 with Bohemians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 38% | Waterford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.55 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.002 / defence 0.941 | Waterford attack 0.832 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.212. Data: 48 Bohemians games / 48 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 50% | Draw 28% | Waterford 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Waterford 4.55. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 80% | Waterford 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 50% | Draw 28% | Waterford 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1.55 / Waterford 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.002 / def 0.941 | Waterford attack 0.832 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Waterford xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 1 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 50% chance of winning, Waterford a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 1 | Waterford 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.00x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.60
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.50
0.95
Waterford xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
21.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.95 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 11W 12D 14L from 37 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 17L across 37 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.22 PPG, Waterford on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 4W 6D 8L from 18 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 6W 2D 10L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Waterford away?
Waterford's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.00 PPG; Waterford away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
2
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Waterford 3-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 61%, Waterford 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bohemians) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Bohemians have failed to score in 28% of games; Waterford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Bohemians's recent matches and 39% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bohemians's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Waterford tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Waterford in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.55 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Waterford attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 50% | Draw 28% | Waterford 22%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.22 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.