Bohemians 1-1 Galway United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galway United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Galway United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 36 as Bohemians welcome Galway United to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Galway United have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Galway United's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.30 PPG, Galway United 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bohemians, 1 for Galway United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Galway United trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Galway United 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 37% | Galway United 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.03 xG and Galway United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.864 / defence 1.295 | Galway United attack 0.877 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.025. Data: 71 Bohemians games / 35 Galway United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 33% | Galway United 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Galway United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galway United are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Galway United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 70% | Galway United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 33% | Galway United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1.03 / Galway United 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.864 / def 1.295 | Galway United attack 0.877 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Galway United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Galway United xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Galway United kick off?
Bohemians vs Galway United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Galway United.
Where is Bohemians vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Galway United part of?
Bohemians vs Galway United is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 30% chance of winning, Galway United a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Galway United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians and Galway United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Galway United?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 1 | Galway United 1W.
What form are Bohemians and Galway United in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Galway United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Bohemians vs Galway United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.86x the league average against Galway United's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Galway United's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galway United Win
30%
3.31
33%
3.05
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.20
1.17
Galway United xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.17 for Galway United, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 11D 14L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Galway United sit at 1.46 PPG from 35 outings (13W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.17 PPG, Galway United on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians's home form reads 4W 5D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Galway United have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Galway United are on 0.91 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Galway United in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Galway United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Galway United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Galway United have gone 13W 12D 10L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Galway United away?
Galway United's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.00 PPG; Galway United away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Galway United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Galway United in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2025, when Bohemians won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Galway United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
2
Draws
3
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Galway United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 5, Galway United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Galway United last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Galway United 2-4 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Galway United?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Galway United see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 59%, Galway United 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Bohemians and 24% for Galway United.
On the defensive side: Galway United in 41%; Bohemians have failed to score in 29% of games; Galway United in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Galway United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bohemians's recent matches and 35% of Galway United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Galway United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bohemians's recent games and 24% of Galway United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Galway United tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Galway United in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Galway United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 36, as Bohemians and Galway United drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.03 xG and Galway United 1.17 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.86 / defence 1.29 against Galway United attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 71/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 30% | Draw 33% | Galway United 37%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 37%, Galway United 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Galway United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.17 PPG, Galway United 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.