PAS Giannina 2-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAS Giannina face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Zosimades plays host to PAS Giannina versus OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PAS Giannina have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
OFI's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
OFI's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for PAS Giannina against 0.80 for OFI. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, OFI edge it 1 wins to 0, with 5 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended PAS Giannina 1–1 OFI — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
PAS Giannina half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 55% versus OFI 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 48% | OFI 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.25 xG and OFI 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.627 / defence 1.067 | OFI attack 0.598 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.321. PAS Giannina's attack rating of 0.627 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. OFI's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAS Giannina's projected output up. OFI's attack rating of 0.598 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 49 games and OFI's last 49.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 33% | OFI 23%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.28 | Draw 3.02 | OFI 4.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 40% (last 10 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 33% | OFI 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG PAS Giannina 1.25 / OFI 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.627 / def 1.067 | OFI attack 0.598 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.84
OFI xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAS Giannina vs OFI FAQs
What time does PAS Giannina vs OFI kick off?
PAS Giannina vs OFI kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
PAS Giannina 2 - 2 OFI.
Where is PAS Giannina vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs OFI part of?
PAS Giannina vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 44% chance of winning, OFI a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both PAS Giannina and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will PAS Giannina vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 0.63x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.60x) against PAS Giannina's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from PAS Giannina's last 49 games and OFI's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.02
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.09
0.84
OFI xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAS Giannina vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.84 for OFI, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina come into this having played 56 games, going 10W 20D 26L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.14 PPG from 56 outings (15W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for PAS Giannina against 1.14 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAS Giannina's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 8D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.04 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
OFI
Blended
PAS Giannina (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAS Giannina
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ PAS Giannina vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are PAS Giannina and OFI in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 10W 20D 26L in their last 56 games (0.89 PPG), while OFI have gone 15W 19D 22L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or OFI away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.11 PPG; OFI away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won OFI 4-0 PAS Giannina on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ PAS Giannina vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and OFI?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, PAS Giannina have won 0, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: OFI 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 48%, OFI 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAS Giannina) and 52% (OFI).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 44% of games; OFI in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAS Giannina vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAS Giannina and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 41% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAS Giannina and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 52% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 74% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and OFI share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina and OFI finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.25 xG and OFI 0.84 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. OFI outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.63 / defence 1.07 against OFI attack 0.60 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 33% | OFI 23%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 48%, OFI 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.89 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.