AEK Athens FC 4-2 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as AEK Athens FC welcome PAS Giannina to OPAP Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AEK Athens FC: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for PAS Giannina, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 40% versus PAS Giannina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 58% | PAS Giannina 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.62 xG and PAS Giannina 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.355 / defence 0.703 | PAS Giannina attack 0.847 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.346. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 AEK Athens FC games / 50 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 17% | PAS Giannina 8%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | PAS Giannina 12.50. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 30% | PAS Giannina 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 17% | PAS Giannina 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 52% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.62 / PAS Giannina 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.355 / def 0.703 | PAS Giannina attack 0.847 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
PAS Giannina xG
52%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
AEK Athens FC 4 - 2 PAS Giannina.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 75% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
Record (7 meetings): AEK Athens FC 6W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.35) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
75%
1.33
17%
5.84
8%
12.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.42
0.80
PAS Giannina xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
12.64
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
7%
13.68
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
1%
172.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.80 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 40W 12D 5L from 57 games, a 2.32 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 10W 21D 26L across 57 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 22W 5D 1L from 28 games — 2.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 3W 11D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.96 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 40W 12D 5L in their last 57 games (2.32 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 10W 21D 26L in their last 57 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAS Giannina away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.54 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.71 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
0
Draws
1
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, PAS Giannina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when AEK Athens FC 4-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 32%, PAS Giannina 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (AEK Athens FC) and 50% (PAS Giannina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 64% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 50% of PAS Giannina's.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAS Giannina 4-2 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.62 xG and PAS Giannina 0.80 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.70 against PAS Giannina attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 17% | PAS Giannina 8%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 58%, PAS Giannina 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.