PAOK vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host OFI at Toumba Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 6W 3D 1L at Toumba Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: PAOK have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while OFI have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 49% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 62% | OFI 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.12 xG and OFI 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.151 / defence 1.058 | OFI attack 1.105 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.065. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 PAOK games / 33 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 56% | Draw 25% | OFI 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | OFI 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | OFI 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 56% | Draw 25% | OFI 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG PAOK 2.12 / OFI 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.151 / def 1.058 | OFI attack 1.105 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: PAOK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
OFI xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs OFI kick off?
PAOK vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs OFI part of?
PAOK vs OFI is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 56% chance of winning, OFI a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both PAOK and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 6W | Draws 2 | OFI 2W.
What form are PAOK and OFI in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.15) and OFI's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.08
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.37
1.25
OFI xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
2%
41.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are PAOK and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for PAOK and 1.25 for OFI, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 39 games, going 23W 10D 6L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.26 PPG from 39 outings (15W 4D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 15W 4D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and OFI in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 10D 6L in their last 39 games (2.03 PPG), while OFI have gone 15W 4D 20L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or OFI away?
PAOK's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.45 PPG; OFI away: 0.90 PPG.
Have PAOK or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, OFI in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PAOK
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and OFI?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 35%, OFI 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for PAOK and 75% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of PAOK's recent matches and 60% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PAOK's matches and 75% of OFI's.
Do PAOK and OFI tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.