PAOK 1-0 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAOK and Larisa meet at Toumba Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 1D 2L at Toumba Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.70 xG and Larisa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.097 / defence 0.999 | Larisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 0.939. Data: 26 PAOK games / 0 Larisa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 24% | Larisa 17%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Larisa 5.88. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 24% | Larisa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG PAOK 1.70 / Larisa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.097 / def 0.999 | Larisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.345 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: PAOK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Larisa xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Larisa kick off?
PAOK vs Larisa kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Larisa?
PAOK 1 - 0 Larisa.
Where is PAOK vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Larisa part of?
PAOK vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 59% chance of winning, Larisa a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAOK and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Larisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Larisa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAOK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Larisa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.85x) against PAOK's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 26/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.20
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.49
0.80
Larisa xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
26%
3.77
3%
31.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are PAOK and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for PAOK and 0.80 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Larisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Pre-Season
Larisa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Larisa?
From 2 meetings on record, PAOK have won 1, Larisa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Larisa 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Larisa?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Larisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Larisa 1-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.70 xG and Larisa 0.80 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Larisa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 59% | Draw 24% | Larisa 17%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.