PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for PAOK, 1.80 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Aris Thessalonikis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.53 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.275 / defence 0.814 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.892 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.55. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG PAOK 1.53 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.275 / def 0.814 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.892 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: PAOK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Aris Thessalonikis xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 48% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (4 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.27x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.89x) against PAOK's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.29
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.51
0.99
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
20.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for PAOK and 0.99 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 38W 13D 11L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 27W 12D 23L from 62 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.19 PPG from 31 outings (21W 5D 5L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 8W 7D 16L from 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.52 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 38W 13D 11L in their last 62 games (2.05 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 27W 12D 23L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.19 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 39%, Aris Thessalonikis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (PAOK) and 42% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; Aris Thessalonikis in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of PAOK's recent matches and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of PAOK's recent games and 42% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat PAOK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAOK 0-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.53 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.99 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.27 / defence 0.81 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.89 / defence 0.73, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 22%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.