Olympiakos Piraeus 1-3 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 1). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Panathinaikos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Panathinaikos have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.50 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.40 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Panathinaikos's last 10 away games) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Panathinaikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 45% versus Panathinaikos 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 56% | Panathinaikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 xG and Panathinaikos 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.354 / defence 0.801 | Panathinaikos attack 1.280 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.354 — their 1.89 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack rating of 1.280, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and Panathinaikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 26%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.11 | Draw 3.83 | Panathinaikos 3.78. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Panathinaikos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% (last 10 home games) | Panathinaikos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 / Panathinaikos 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.354 / def 0.801 | Panathinaikos attack 1.280 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 3 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.28x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and Panathinaikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.83
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.29
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
4%
25.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.39 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 62 games, going 39W 14D 9L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 2.13 PPG from 62 outings (39W 15D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.11 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.13 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 22W 5D 4L across their last 31 home games, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 2.03 points per game from their last 31 away games (19W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.73 scored and 0.61 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Panathinaikos in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs Panathinaikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 14D 9L in their last 62 games (2.11 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 39W 15D 8L in their last 62 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.29 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
1
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Panathinaikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, Panathinaikos 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 42% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 39% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 42% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 57% of Panathinaikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-3 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 xG and Panathinaikos 1.39 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.35 / defence 0.80 against Panathinaikos attack 1.28 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 26%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, Panathinaikos 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.11 PPG, Panathinaikos 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.