Panserraikos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panserraikos have posted 3W 4D 1L at Dimotiko Stadio Serron — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Panserraikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Stadio Serron than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Aris Thessalonikis are 1.00 PPG clear of Panserraikos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Panserraikos lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (20 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (20 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus Aris Thessalonikis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.13 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.882 / defence 1.186 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.065 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.289. Data: 20 Panserraikos games / 46 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 26% | Draw 26% | Aris Thessalonikis 48%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.08. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 75% | Aris Thessalonikis 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 26% | Draw 26% | Aris Thessalonikis 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Panserraikos 1.13 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.882 / def 1.186 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.065 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Aris Thessalonikis xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panserraikos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 26% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (1 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panserraikos's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.06x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 20/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
26%
3.89
26%
3.81
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.76
1.63
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
19.86
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.63 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panserraikos's recent record stands at 5W 7D 8L from 20 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 7L across 20 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panserraikos have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Panserraikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panserraikos are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.55 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 10W 3D 7L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.62 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Panserraikos 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 75%, Aris Thessalonikis 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panserraikos) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 50%; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panserraikos's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 21, as Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.13 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.63 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 20/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 26% | Draw 26% | Aris Thessalonikis 48%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 40%, Aris Thessalonikis 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.