Atromitos 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atromitos face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PAOK travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Atromitos have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
PAOK away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Atromitos's games and 60% of PAOK's (from Atromitos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
PAOK have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Atromitos.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Atromitos 0–2 PAOK — a PAOK win.
PAOK have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
PAOK trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 57% versus PAOK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 38% | PAOK 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Atromitos surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.20 xG and PAOK 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.854 / defence 1.115 | PAOK attack 1.691 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.350. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.691, which lifts their away xG to 2.54. Data: built from Atromitos's last 46 games and PAOK's last 46.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 6.47 | Draw 5.31 | PAOK 1.52. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.20 / 2.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 60% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Atromitos 1.20 / PAOK 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.854 / def 1.115 | PAOK attack 1.691 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: PAOK (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
2.54
PAOK xG
65%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs PAOK kick off?
Atromitos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Atromitos 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Atromitos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAOK part of?
Atromitos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 15% chance of winning, PAOK a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Atromitos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atromitos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.85x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 2.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 46 games and PAOK's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
15%
6.47
19%
5.31
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Atromitos xG
Total xG
3.75
2.54
PAOK xG
6.47
15%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
8%
12.74
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
1%
82.43
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Atromitos and 2.54 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 14W 19D 20L from 53 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 10L across 53 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 9W 12D 5L from their last 26 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 13W 7D 6L across their last 26 away games, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.06 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 20L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while PAOK have gone 32W 11D 10L in their last 53 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.50 PPG; PAOK away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Atromitos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, PAOK in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won PAOK 3-0 Atromitos.
Atromitos's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
1
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 1, PAOK have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Atromitos 1-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 46%, PAOK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Atromitos) and 58% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; PAOK in 31%; Atromitos have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atromitos's recent matches and 54% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Atromitos's recent games and 58% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Atromitos's recent matches and 85% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Atromitos 0-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.20 xG and PAOK 2.54 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against PAOK attack 1.69 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 38%, PAOK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.