Panetolikos 0-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Panetolikou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Panetolikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Panetolikos's 30% rate and Volos NFC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Panetolikos, 1 for Volos NFC and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 44% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 49% | Volos NFC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.16 xG and Volos NFC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 1.044 / defence 0.805 | Volos NFC attack 0.931 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.207. Data: 34 Panetolikos games / 34 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 25%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Volos NFC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | Volos NFC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Panetolikos 1.16 / Volos NFC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 1.044 / def 0.805 | Volos NFC attack 0.931 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Volos NFC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 38% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Panetolikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Record (4 meetings): Panetolikos 2W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Panetolikos's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
38%
2.60
36%
2.77
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.06
0.91
Volos NFC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.91 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 11D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 0.98 PPG from 41 outings (10W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.22 PPG, Volos NFC on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.02 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 10W 10D 21L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.40 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
2
Draws
5
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 35%, Volos NFC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panetolikos) and 45% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 30% of games; Volos NFC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 40% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panetolikos's recent games and 45% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.16 xG and Volos NFC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.04 / defence 0.81 against Volos NFC attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 38% | Draw 36% | Volos NFC 25%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 49%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.22 PPG, Volos NFC 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.