OFI 1-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates OFI at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs PAS Giannina encounter.

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Analysis

PAS Giannina make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

OFI's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

OFI's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

PAS Giannina (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

PAS Giannina's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. OFI's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of PAS Giannina's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from OFI's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) — OFI have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAS Giannina in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, OFI edge it 1 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended OFI 1–0 PAS Giannina — a OFI win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

OFI half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

PAS Giannina half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus PAS Giannina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 42% | PAS Giannina 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.66 xG and PAS Giannina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.904 / defence 0.917 | PAS Giannina attack 0.898 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.134. Data: built from OFI's last 36 games and PAS Giannina's last 36.

Result probabilities: OFI 51% | Draw 31% | PAS Giannina 18%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.96 | Draw 3.19 | PAS Giannina 5.66. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 60% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 60% (last 10 away games).

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