Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Asteras Tripolis's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Olympiakos Piraeus are 1.20 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2022, ended Asteras Tripolis 0–5 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 35% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.85 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.821 / defence 1.318 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.311 / defence 0.675. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.145. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.675, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Asteras Tripolis's projected output down. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack rating of 1.311, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 36 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 36.

Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 12% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 61%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 8.10 | Draw 3.72 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 50% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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