OFI 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OFI and Lamia meet at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — OFI are significantly better at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis than their overall form suggests.
Lamia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lamia arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 45% versus Lamia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 41% | Lamia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.39 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.761 / defence 1.008 | Lamia attack 0.844 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.169. OFI's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 OFI games / 42 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 30% | Lamia 25%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Lamia 4.00. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
OFI dominate the H2H record, yet Lamia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 60% | Lamia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 8 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 30% | Lamia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG OFI 1.39 / Lamia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.761 / def 1.008 | Lamia attack 0.844 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: OFI (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lamia xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Lamia kick off?
OFI vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 January 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Lamia?
OFI 1 - 1 Lamia.
Where is OFI vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Lamia part of?
OFI vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 45% chance of winning, Lamia a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
Record (7 meetings): OFI 3W | Draws 3 | Lamia 1W.
What form are OFI and Lamia in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.76x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.84x) against OFI's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
45%
2.25
30%
3.32
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
OFI xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
Lamia xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for OFI and 0.99 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 17D 19L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 1.00 PPG from 49 outings (10W 19D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for OFI against 1.00 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 6W 10D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.72 points per game from 25 outings (2W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.84 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Lamia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 19D 20L in their last 49 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Lamia away?
OFI's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.12 PPG; Lamia away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Lamia?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 48%, Lamia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (OFI) and 44% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 40% of games; Lamia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of OFI's recent matches and 40% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of OFI's recent games and 44% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Lamia tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lamia in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 17, as OFI and Lamia drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.39 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against Lamia attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 45% | Draw 30% | Lamia 25%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 41%, Lamia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.14 PPG, Lamia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.