Atromitos 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Atromitos have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OFI's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Atromitos. A 1.50 PPG lead over OFI (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Atromitos, 0 for OFI and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Atromitos 1–1 OFI — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 56% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 36% | OFI 40%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Atromitos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.89 xG and OFI 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.994 / defence 0.886 | OFI attack 0.676 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.170. OFI's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Atromitos's last 43 games and OFI's last 43.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 64% | Draw 24% | OFI 12%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.56 | Draw 4.12 | OFI 8.58. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (64%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atromitos 60% (last 10 home games) | OFI 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 64% | Draw 24% | OFI 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Atromitos 1.89 / OFI 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.994 / def 0.886 | OFI attack 0.676 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.70
OFI xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs OFI FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 64% chance of winning, OFI a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.99x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.68x) against Atromitos's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 43 games and OFI's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.12
12%
8.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.59
0.70
OFI xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
8.58
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
56.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.70 for OFI, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 14W 18D 18L from 50 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 19L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Atromitos against 1.14 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 9W 11D 4L from their last 24 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
OFI
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
Atromitos's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.58 PPG; OFI away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Atromitos and OFI, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
7
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: OFI 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and OFI?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 46%, OFI 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Atromitos) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 29% of games; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atromitos's recent matches and 42% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Atromitos's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Atromitos's recent matches and 75% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 18, as Atromitos and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.89 xG and OFI 0.70 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against OFI attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 64% | Draw 24% | OFI 12%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 36%, OFI 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.20 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.