Levadiakos 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Levadias this season.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Levadiakos's favour (2.00 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 1W to 0W over the last 6 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Levadiakos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 54% versus Panetolikos 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 52% | Panetolikos 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.922 / defence 1.180 | Panetolikos attack 0.813 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 36% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 34%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Panetolikos 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | Panetolikos 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 36% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Levadiakos 1.09 / Panetolikos 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.922 / def 1.180 | Panetolikos attack 0.813 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Panetolikos xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panetolikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Levadiakos 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 36% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Levadiakos and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 5 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panetolikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.92x the league average against Panetolikos's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.81x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.38
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.14
1.05
Panetolikos xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.05 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 11W 11D 11L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 10W 9D 14L from 33 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.18 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 7D 5L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.70 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos in 27%.
Defensively: Panetolikos in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 11W 11D 11L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panetolikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.25 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
5
Draws
2
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, Panetolikos have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, Panetolikos 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Levadiakos and 12% for Panetolikos.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 44%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 38% of games; Panetolikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 31% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levadiakos's recent games and 12% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Levadiakos 1-2 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Panetolikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 36% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 34%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 52%, Panetolikos 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.33 PPG, Panetolikos 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.