Levadiakos vs Kifisia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Kifisia travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kifisia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kifisia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kifisia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 1.30 PPG, Kifisia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Kifisia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Kifisia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Kifisia trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 51% versus Kifisia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 63% | Kifisia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.23 xG and Kifisia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.749 / defence 1.248 | Kifisia attack 0.870 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 0.962. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Levadiakos games / 28 Kifisia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 36% | Draw 36% | Kifisia 27%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Kifisia 3.70. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Kifisia 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 36% | Draw 36% | Kifisia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Levadiakos 1.23 / Kifisia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.749 / def 1.248 | Kifisia attack 0.870 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.545 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Kifisia xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kifisia kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kifisia is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kifisia part of?
Levadiakos vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 36% chance of winning, Kifisia a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Levadiakos and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kifisia?
Record (2 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 0 | Kifisia 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Kifisia in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Kifisia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.75x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
36%
2.75
36%
2.75
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.27
1.04
Kifisia xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.04 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 15W 7D 13L from 35 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kifisia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 13L across 35 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kifisia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.49 PPG, Kifisia on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 9W 3D 5L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kifisia's away record stands at 4W 7D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.00 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 13L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 8W 14D 13L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Kifisia away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.76 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levadiakos and Kifisia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Levadiakos
0
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kifisia?
From 2 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 1, Kifisia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kifisia 1-0 Levadiakos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 53%, Kifisia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Levadiakos) and 53% (Kifisia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Levadiakos's games and 59% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Levadiakos's matches and 53% of Kifisia's.
Do Levadiakos and Kifisia tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.