Kallithea 0-3 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kallithea vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kallithea and Levadiakos meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kallithea's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kallithea at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Levadiakos are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kallithea, 1 for Levadiakos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2024, ended 2–4 with Levadiakos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kallithea — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 59% versus Levadiakos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 48% | Levadiakos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.09 xG and Levadiakos 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.909 / defence 1.282 | Levadiakos attack 0.934 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 26 Kallithea games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 31% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 42%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Levadiakos 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Kallithea 80% | Levadiakos 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 31% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Kallithea 1.09 / Levadiakos 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.909 / def 1.282 | Levadiakos attack 0.934 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Levadiakos xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kallithea vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Kallithea 0 - 3 Levadiakos.
Where is Kallithea vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Levadiakos part of?
Kallithea vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 31% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kallithea and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): Kallithea 0W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Kallithea and Levadiakos in?
Kallithea (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kallithea's attack at 0.91x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.93x) against Kallithea's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.64
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.40
1.31
Levadiakos xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.31 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kallithea's recent record stands at 5W 10D 14L from 29 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 11L across 29 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Kallithea against 1.17 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kallithea have managed 3W 5D 6L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 4W 6D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kallithea are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.21 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 5W 10D 14L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 1.00 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 0-3 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kallithea have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kallithea
1
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Levadiakos?
From 4 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 0, Levadiakos have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Levadiakos 4-1 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Kallithea, 64% for Levadiakos — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kallithea) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Kallithea's games and 64% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kallithea vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Kallithea's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kallithea and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kallithea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Kallithea 0-3 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.09 xG and Levadiakos 1.31 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Levadiakos outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 31% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 42%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 48%, Levadiakos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.86 PPG, Levadiakos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.