Kalamata vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalamata at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalamata vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Levadiakos travel to Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium to take on Kalamata. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 December 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.22 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalamata, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalamata's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Kalamata carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.62 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.22 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Kalamata in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 89% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kalamata 67% | Levadiakos 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kalamata 56% | Levadiakos 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.70 xG and Levadiakos 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 1.058 / defence 1.453 | Levadiakos attack 0.637 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Data: 9 Kalamata games / 35 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalamata 54% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 19%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Levadiakos 5.26. Kalamata hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalamata are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalamata offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Kalamata 80% | Levadiakos 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 54% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Kalamata 1.70 / Levadiakos 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 1.058 / def 1.453 | Levadiakos attack 0.637 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Kalamata (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Levadiakos xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kalamata vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs Levadiakos part of?
Kalamata vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 54% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalamata the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kalamata and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalamata and Levadiakos in?
Kalamata (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalamata's attack at 1.06x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Kalamata's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalamata Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.70
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Kalamata xG
Total xG
2.64
0.94
Levadiakos xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
28.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Kalamata and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Kalamata and 0.94 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Kalamata have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kalamata is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kalamata are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kalamata have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Kalamata are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalamata come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalamata are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 0%.
Defensively: Levadiakos in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalamata at home or Levadiakos away?
Kalamata's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalamata at home: 1.75 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Kalamata or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalamata have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 44%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalamata 75%, Levadiakos 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kalamata) and 25% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 50%; Levadiakos in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Kalamata's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalamata vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kalamata's recent games and 25% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalamata and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.