Atromitos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atromitos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 December 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atromitos's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Atromitos.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Atromitos 0–4 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 57% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Atromitos surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Olympiakos Piraeus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.08 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.005 / defence 1.045 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.180 / defence 0.689. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.217. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.689, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Atromitos's projected output down. Data: built from Atromitos's last 40 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 40.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.86 | Draw 3.48 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.20. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atromitos 70% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Thursday 21 December 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Atromitos 1.08 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.005 / def 1.045 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.180 / def 0.689 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Atromitos 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 15) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.00x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 40 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.86
29%
3.48
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.59
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.50 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 17D 18L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.11 PPG from 47 outings (29W 12D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 9W 10D 4L across their last 23 home games, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 23 away games (13W 7D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.13 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 29W 12D 6L in their last 47 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.61 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Atromitos.
Atromitos's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Atromitos and 44% for Olympiakos Piraeus.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%; Atromitos have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atromitos's recent matches and 39% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Atromitos's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Atromitos's recent matches and 65% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atromitos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.08 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.18 / defence 0.69, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 34%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.