PAS Giannina 0-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as PAS Giannina welcome Panetolikos to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Panetolikos's 0.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of PAS Giannina's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Panetolikos and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 57% versus Panetolikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 47% | Panetolikos 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.42 xG and Panetolikos 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.744 / defence 1.057 | Panetolikos attack 0.889 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.164. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 PAS Giannina games / 40 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 28%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Panetolikos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
PAS Giannina dominate the H2H record, yet Panetolikos are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panetolikos (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 30% | Panetolikos 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG PAS Giannina 1.42 / Panetolikos 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.744 / def 1.057 | Panetolikos attack 0.889 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Panetolikos xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina 0 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 44% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
Record (6 meetings): PAS Giannina 3W | Draws 2 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
44%
2.30
28%
3.51
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Panetolikos xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.09 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 8W 18D 21L from 47 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 25L across 47 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 0.89 PPG, Panetolikos on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.96 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 18D 21L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 9W 13D 25L in their last 47 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panetolikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.14 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
4
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Panetolikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, Panetolikos 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAS Giannina) and 59% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 41% of games; Panetolikos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PAS Giannina's games and 64% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 59% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panetolikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAS Giannina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 15, as PAS Giannina and Panetolikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.42 xG and Panetolikos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAS Giannina fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Panetolikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Panetolikos attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 28%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 47%, Panetolikos 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.89 PPG, Panetolikos 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.