Aris Thessalonikis 0-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Aris Thessalonikis have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Volos NFC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | Volos NFC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 xG and Volos NFC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.269 / defence 0.796 | Volos NFC attack 1.007 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.241. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Aris Thessalonikis games / 37 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Volos NFC 4.55. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 70% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 / Volos NFC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.269 / def 0.796 | Volos NFC attack 1.007 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Volos NFC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 52% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Record (4 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 4W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.27) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.82
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.63
0.99
Volos NFC xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.99 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 21W 10D 13L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 11W 10D 23L from 44 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.86 PPG from 22 outings (12W 5D 5L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 5D 11L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.02 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 10D 13L in their last 44 games (1.66 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 11W 10D 23L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.86 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 59%, Volos NFC 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 46% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Volos NFC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 41% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 46% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 xG and Volos NFC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against Volos NFC attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 22%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Volos NFC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.