Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Panserraikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Panserraikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.50 for Panserraikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Panserraikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Aris Thessalonikis lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 47% versus Panserraikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Panserraikos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 xG and Panserraikos 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.143 / defence 0.797 | Panserraikos attack 0.992 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.269. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Aris Thessalonikis games / 40 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Panserraikos 4.55. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 70% | Panserraikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 / Panserraikos 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.143 / def 0.797 | Panserraikos attack 0.992 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Panserraikos xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 53% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
Record (3 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.14x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.99x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.92
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.70
1.00
Panserraikos xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.90
48%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
25.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.00 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 22W 10D 15L from 47 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 21L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 12W 5D 6L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 5W 4D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.19 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panserraikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.78 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panserraikos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Panserraikos 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 61%, Panserraikos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 52% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Panserraikos in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 44% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 52% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panserraikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 xG and Panserraikos 1.00 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Panserraikos attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 22%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 43%, Panserraikos 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panserraikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.