VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stuttgart Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stuttgart Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.50 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 1W, Union Berlin 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 67% versus Union Berlin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 69% | Union Berlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.10 xG and Union Berlin 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.415 / defence 0.875 | Union Berlin attack 0.654 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.339. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 VfB Stuttgart games / 58 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 22% | Union Berlin 11%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Union Berlin 9.09. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 80% | Union Berlin 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 22% | Union Berlin 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 48% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.10 / Union Berlin 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.415 / def 0.875 | Union Berlin attack 0.654 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Union Berlin xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 67% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
Record (5 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 2 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.42) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.65x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.52
11%
9.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.87
0.77
Union Berlin xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
9.05
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
73.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.77 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 25W 12D 21L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 25W 12D 21L from 58 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.50 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 9W 4D 16L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 25W 12D 21L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 25W 12D 21L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Union Berlin away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.79 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.07 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
3
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Union Berlin have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 66%, Union Berlin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (VfB Stuttgart) and 48% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 41% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 48% of Union Berlin's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Union Berlin 2-0 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.10 xG and Union Berlin 0.77 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.42 / defence 0.88 against Union Berlin attack 0.65 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 22% | Union Berlin 11%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 69%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.50 PPG, Union Berlin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.