Union Berlin 2-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.50 for Werder Bremen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Union Berlin are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Werder Bremen winning.
The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 42% versus Werder Bremen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | Werder Bremen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.13 xG and Werder Bremen 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.807 / defence 0.979 | Werder Bremen attack 0.849 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.357. Data: 59 Union Berlin games / 59 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 34%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Werder Bremen 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 30% | Werder Bremen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Union Berlin 1.13 / Werder Bremen 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.807 / def 0.979 | Werder Bremen attack 0.849 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Werder Bremen xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen part of?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 34% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union Berlin and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 4W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.85x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
34%
2.94
32%
3.11
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.26
1.13
Werder Bremen xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.13 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 25W 12D 22L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen's form line: 18W 12D 29L from 59 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.12 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (16W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 8W 7D 14L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.44 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 25W 12D 22L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 18W 12D 29L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Werder Bremen away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.93 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 4-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 45%, Werder Bremen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 55% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 62% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Union Berlin's recent games and 55% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out Werder Bremen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Werder Bremen 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.13 xG and Werder Bremen 1.13 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Werder Bremen attack 0.85 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 34% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 34%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, Werder Bremen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.47 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.