Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Union Berlin, 3 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 39% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 44% | Eintracht Frankfurt 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.63 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.982 / defence 0.861 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.933 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.660. Data: 41 Union Berlin games / 41 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Union Berlin 1.63 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.982 / def 0.861 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.933 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.660 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 42% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (6 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.98x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.54
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.96
1.33
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.33 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 13W 8D 20L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 11L across 41 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.15 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 10W 2D 8L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.61 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 15W 15D 11L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.60 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 50%, Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Union Berlin and 70% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Union Berlin's games and 65% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Union Berlin's matches and 70% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.63 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.33 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 44%, Eintracht Frankfurt 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.15 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.