SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Eintracht Frankfurt at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eintracht Frankfurt haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 1.00 (Eintracht Frankfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Eintracht Frankfurt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against SC Freiburg's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 62% and Eintracht Frankfurt 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 65% | Eintracht Frankfurt 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.97 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.047 / defence 0.955 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.025 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Data: 34 SC Freiburg games / 34 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 28%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.57. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 50% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG SC Freiburg 1.97 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.047 / def 0.955 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.025 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.822 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Europa-Park Stadion.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 50% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (10 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.54
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.41
1.44
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
4%
25.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.44 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 13W 8D 13L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. SC Freiburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 11W 11D 12L from 34 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. Eintracht Frankfurt haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.38 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — SC Freiburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 7D 6L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.79 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 74%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Pre-Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 13W 8D 13L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.88 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 82%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Freiburg and 71% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Freiburg's games and 88% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Freiburg's matches and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.