Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 70% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 63% | VfB Stuttgart 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.161 / defence 1.116 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.969 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.412. Data: 60 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 60 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 34%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | VfB Stuttgart 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.71 / VfB Stuttgart 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.161 / def 1.116 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.969 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 42% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (7 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 3W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.16) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.19
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.24
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 20D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.83 PPG from 60 outings (33W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.53 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 13W 11D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.66 points per game from 29 outings (14W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.08 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 20D 16L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.72 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 76%, VfB Stuttgart at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 69% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 59% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 69% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out VfB Stuttgart 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.16 / defence 1.12 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 34%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 63%, VfB Stuttgart 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.53 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.