Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Eintracht Frankfurt have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Borussia Mönchengladbach managing just 0 victories and 4 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eintracht Frankfurt and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 71% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.07 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.942 / defence 1.081 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 52% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 26%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.85. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 52% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.07 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.942 / def 1.081 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 52% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (10 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 6W | Draws 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.94x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.95x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.55
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.49
1.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
3%
30.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.42 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 14W 13D 15L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.00 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.26 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.52 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 62% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 48% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.