Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Mönchengladbach face SC Freiburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to Borussia-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Borussia-Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borussia-Park. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. SC Freiburg's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Freiburg have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–5 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% versus SC Freiburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | SC Freiburg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 xG and SC Freiburg 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.867 / defence 1.272 | SC Freiburg attack 1.007 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 42 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 44%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | SC Freiburg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | SC Freiburg 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 / SC Freiburg 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.867 / def 1.272 | SC Freiburg attack 1.007 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.76
SC Freiburg xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Borussia-Park.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 5 | SC Freiburg 5W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
32%
3.14
24%
4.17
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.23
1.76
SC Freiburg xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
5%
18.25
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.76 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 12D 20L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 18W 9D 15L from 42 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Freiburg's season.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.64 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 18W 9D 15L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.19 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2026, when SC Freiburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 43%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 62% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 33% of games; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.