Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BORUSSIA-PARK plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 2D 4L at BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.60 for Borussia Dortmund — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Borussia Dortmund in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W, Borussia Dortmund 4W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and Borussia Dortmund 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Borussia Dortmund 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.45 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.194 / defence 0.946 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.849 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.477. Borussia Dortmund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 46 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 15%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Borussia Dortmund 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.45 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.45 / Borussia Dortmund 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.194 / def 0.946 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.849 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 64% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (6 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.45. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (0.85x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.80
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.64
1.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
9%
11.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
1%
75.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.19 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 12W 15D 19L from 46 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 11L across 46 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 9W 6D 7L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 24W 11D 11L in their last 46 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.50 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 68% for Borussia Dortmund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 64% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 68% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 64% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund finished level at 1-1 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.45 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 15%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, Borussia Dortmund 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.