SSV Ulm 1846 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as SSV Ulm 1846 welcome Hamburger SV to Donaustadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Ulm 1846 stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Donaustadion, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 2D 4L this season (7 games, 0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (SSV Ulm 1846) versus 1.40 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SSV Ulm 1846 register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Ulm 1846 60% and Hamburger SV 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 47% | Hamburger SV 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.09 xG and Hamburger SV 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.697 / defence 0.930 | Hamburger SV attack 1.149 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.547. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 49 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 23% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 48%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Hamburger SV 2.08. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 71% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 23% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.09 / Hamburger SV 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.697 / def 0.930 | Hamburger SV attack 1.149 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Hamburger SV xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV?
SSV Ulm 1846 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 23% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Ulm 1846's attack at 0.70x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus SSV Ulm 1846's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
23%
4.35
29%
3.48
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.74
1.65
Hamburger SV xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
4%
22.71
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.65 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 6D 7L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 6W 6D 3L from 15 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
Venue Form
On home soil, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.20 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Ulm 1846 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 80%.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 0.71 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Ulm 1846
1
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Hamburger SV 6-1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SSV Ulm 1846 at 71%, Hamburger SV at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for SSV Ulm 1846 and 86% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SSV Ulm 1846's games and 71% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SSV Ulm 1846's matches and 86% of Hamburger SV's.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Ulm 1846 and Hamburger SV finished level at 1-1 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.09 xG and Hamburger SV 1.65 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.70 / defence 0.93 against Hamburger SV attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 23% | Draw 29% | Hamburger SV 48%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 47%, Hamburger SV 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.