SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome 1. FC Kaiserslautern to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Kaiserslautern — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
1. FC Kaiserslautern away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) versus 1.10 (1. FC Kaiserslautern). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
1. FC Kaiserslautern in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.58 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.974 / defence 1.034 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.945 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.359. Data: 62 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 62 1. FC Kaiserslautern games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 32%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.58 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.974 / def 1.034 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.945 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.33
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 43% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Record (3 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.99
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.91
1.33
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.33 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 17D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Kaiserslautern sit at 1.19 PPG from 62 outings (19W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.29 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 16W 10D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (7W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are on 1.47 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 65%.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 21W 17D 24L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 19W 17D 26L in their last 62 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Kaiserslautern away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.87 PPG; 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2025, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Kaiserslautern specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
5
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 55% (1. FC Kaiserslautern). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 61% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 55% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Kaiserslautern tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.58 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.33 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 32%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.29 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.