1. FC Magdeburg 2-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Magdeburg face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV meet at MDCC-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hamburger SV's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 0–2 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 56% versus Hamburger SV 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 58% | Hamburger SV 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Magdeburg surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Hamburger SV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 xG and Hamburger SV 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.868 / defence 0.974 | Hamburger SV attack 1.039 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.316. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 62 games and Hamburger SV's last 62.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 38%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.85 | Draw 3.64 | Hamburger SV 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 / Hamburger SV 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.868 / def 0.974 | Hamburger SV attack 1.039 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hamburger SV xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Magdeburg 2 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 35% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.87x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.04x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 62 games and Hamburger SV's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.64
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.33
Hamburger SV xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.33 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 15D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.79 PPG from 62 outings (33W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 12W 7D 12L across their last 31 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 9D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.97 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 61%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 33W 12D 17L in their last 62 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.39 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.45 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hamburger SV have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 Hamburger SV on 14 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Hamburger SV 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 58% (Hamburger SV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 61% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 58% of Hamburger SV's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 77% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 29, as 1. FC Magdeburg and Hamburger SV drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 xG and Hamburger SV 1.33 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Hamburger SV attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 38%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Hamburger SV 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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