SC Paderborn 07 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 3 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 72% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 72% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.949 / defence 1.117 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.916 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.528. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 SC Paderborn 07 games / 53 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead the H2H ledger, but SC Paderborn 07 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.85 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.949 / def 1.117 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.916 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 44% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (5 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.95x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.21
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.42
1.56
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
5%
19.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.56 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 23W 14D 16L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 19W 13D 21L from 53 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.57 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (11W 6D 9L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 7D 13L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.45 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.50 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 65%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (SC Paderborn 07) and 50% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.