SC Paderborn 07 2-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome FC St. Pauli to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC St. Pauli's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SC Paderborn 07's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 63% versus FC St. Pauli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 72% | FC St. Pauli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.30 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / defence 1.047 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.092 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.291. FC St. Pauli's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 SC Paderborn 07 games / 43 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 32% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | FC St. Pauli 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 32% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.30 / FC St. Pauli 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / def 1.047 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.092 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC St. Pauli xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 32% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
Record (4 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 2 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.03) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.66
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.48
FC St. Pauli xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.48 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 20W 9D 14L from 43 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 8L across 43 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.60 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 14W 1D 6L from 21 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — SC Paderborn 07 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.70 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 21W 14D 8L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.05 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.52 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 62%, FC St. Pauli 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 62% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 57% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 62% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli finished level at 2-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.30 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.48 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 32% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 40%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, FC St. Pauli 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.