FC St. Pauli 5-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 64% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host 1. FC Nürnberg at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Nürnberg away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (FC St. Pauli) versus 1.60 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC St. Pauli's games and 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's (from FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of FC St. Pauli: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for 1. FC Nürnberg, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended FC St. Pauli 1–0 1. FC Nürnberg — a FC St. Pauli win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both FC St. Pauli and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 52% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 52% | 1. FC Nürnberg 48%). Note also that 1. FC Nürnberg surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while FC St. Pauli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.15 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.113 / defence 0.718 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.021 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.297. FC St. Pauli have a tight defence (rating 0.718), which is pulling 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output down. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 42 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 42.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 64% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 15%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.55 | Draw 4.85 | 1. FC Nürnberg 6.65. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (FC St. Pauli 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 64% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG FC St. Pauli 2.15 / 1. FC Nürnberg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.113 / def 0.718 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.021 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.95
1. FC Nürnberg xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC St. Pauli 5 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 64% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.11) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 42 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.85
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.10
0.95
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
57.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.95 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 20W 14D 8L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 13W 12D 17L from 42 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Nürnberg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 21 home games (11W 9D 1L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 6D 11L from their last 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.05 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 20W 14D 8L in their last 42 games (1.76 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 0.86 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2023, when FC St. Pauli won FC St. Pauli 5-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
1
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: FC St. Pauli 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 48%, 1. FC Nürnberg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC St. Pauli) and 62% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 48% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 81% of 1. FC Nürnberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC St. Pauli run riot with a 5-1 hammering of 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Nürnberg 5-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.15 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.95 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.11 / defence 0.72 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 64% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 15%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 52%, 1. FC Nürnberg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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