SC Paderborn 07 3-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.50 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 2W, 1. FC Nürnberg 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 70% and 1. FC Nürnberg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 72% | 1. FC Nürnberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.22 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.868 / defence 0.735 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.072 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.446. SC Paderborn 07's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 SC Paderborn 07 games / 46 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.22 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.868 / def 0.735 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.072 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
1. FC Nürnberg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 36% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (6 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (1.07x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.11
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.36
1.14
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.14 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 20W 13D 13L from 46 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 20L across 46 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.26 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.46 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.64 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 59%, 1. FC Nürnberg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SC Paderborn 07 and 64% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 68% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.22 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.87 / defence 0.73 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 36% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 72%, 1. FC Nürnberg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.