SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 home games — 0.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SV Darmstadt 98 arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2W, SV Darmstadt 98 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 22% versus SV Darmstadt 98 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.84 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.463 / defence 1.013 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.321 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.533. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.463 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 16 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 64%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 8.33 | Draw 4.17 | SV Darmstadt 98 1.56. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SSV Jahn Regensburg 11% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.84 / SV Darmstadt 98 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.463 / def 1.013 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.321 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
2.05
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 12% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 64% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (4 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 2W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (0.46x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.32x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
12%
8.00
24%
4.22
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.89
2.05
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
8.00
12%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
13%
7.78
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
2%
62.27
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2.05 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 3D 12L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 2W 1D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.61 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.94 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 72%.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 3D 12L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 0.88 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 0%, SV Darmstadt 98 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 100% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 88% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 75% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 100% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SSV Jahn Regensburg defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.84 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.46 / defence 1.01 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.32 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 64%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a SSV Jahn Regensburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, SV Darmstadt 98 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.