Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Holstein-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Holstein Kiel are significantly better at Holstein-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Holstein Kiel) versus 1.20 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Holstein Kiel, 3 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 57% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.97 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.978 / defence 0.827 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.982 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Holstein Kiel games / 44 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 61% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 61% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.97 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.978 / def 0.827 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.982 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Holstein-Stadion.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 61% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (7 meetings): Holstein Kiel 3W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.53
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.91
0.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
41.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 0.95 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 12W 13D 19L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 13W 10D 21L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.11 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 4D 13L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.34 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.32 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 7 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 54%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Holstein Kiel) and 68% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Holstein Kiel's games and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.