Hertha BSC 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Olympiastadion to face Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion: 2W 5D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.50 PPG clear of Hertha BSC in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 59% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 54% | SC Paderborn 07 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.90 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.761 / defence 0.953 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.874 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.304. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Hertha BSC games / 39 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 39%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | SC Paderborn 07 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Hertha BSC dominate the H2H record, yet SC Paderborn 07 are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 50% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Hertha BSC 0.90 / SC Paderborn 07 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.761 / def 0.953 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.874 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SC Paderborn 07 xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Olympiastadion.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hertha BSC 0 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 30% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 3W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.76x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.87x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
30%
3.35
31%
3.25
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
1.99
1.09
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.09 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 10D 16L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.62 PPG from 39 outings (17W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.62 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 4W 6D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (7W 9D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.56 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 67%.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 13W 10D 16L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 0.95 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 5-2 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 58%, SC Paderborn 07 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hertha BSC) and 47% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hertha BSC's games and 63% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hertha BSC 0-2 at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.90 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.09 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 39%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 54%, SC Paderborn 07 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.26 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.