Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

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Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

Hansa Rostock (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Paderborn 07, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

It is worth noting that SC Paderborn 07 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 39% versus SC Paderborn 07 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 48% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.35 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.832 / defence 1.158 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.129 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.383. Data: 67 Hansa Rostock games / 67 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 28% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 48%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 2.08. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 50% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.

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