SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 50%, yet in-form FC Schalke 04 provide a compelling counter-argument — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
FC Schalke 04 (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Schalke 04's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Schalke 04 arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FC Schalke 04 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% versus FC Schalke 04 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | FC Schalke 04 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.04 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.086 / defence 1.118 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.975 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.383. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 33 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 28%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | FC Schalke 04 3.57. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Schalke 04 (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% | FC Schalke 04 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.04 / FC Schalke 04 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.086 / def 1.118 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.975 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Schalke 04 xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 0 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 50% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.09x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.97x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
50%
2.01
22%
4.54
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.54
1.51
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
4%
27.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.51 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 67 games, going 23W 19D 25L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 1.10 PPG from 67 outings (19W 17D 31L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.10 for FC Schalke 04. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 17W 11D 5L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 0.70 points per game from 33 outings (5W 8D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Schalke 04's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.31 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 19D 25L in their last 67 games (1.31 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 19W 17D 31L in their last 67 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.88 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
1
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, FC Schalke 04 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 58% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 52% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 58% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat FC Schalke 04 2-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.04 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.51 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.09 / defence 1.12 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 28%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%, FC Schalke 04 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.31 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.