Hannover 96 3-2 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846 meet at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hannover 96's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hannover 96 have posted 7W 0D 3L at Heinz von Heiden-Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at Heinz von Heiden-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SSV Ulm 1846 (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Hannover 96's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Hannover 96 — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
SSV Ulm 1846 — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 43% versus SSV Ulm 1846 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.39 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.015 / defence 0.711 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.701 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.549. Hannover 96's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Hannover 96 games / 14 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 49% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 18%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | SSV Ulm 1846 5.56. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 60% | SSV Ulm 1846 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 49% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Hannover 96 1.39 / SSV Ulm 1846 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.015 / def 0.711 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.701 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
0.77
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Hannover 96 3 - 2 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 49% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hannover 96's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against SSV Ulm 1846's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — SSV Ulm 1846's attack (0.70x) against Hannover 96's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
49%
2.03
32%
3.10
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.17
0.77
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
21.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 0.77 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hannover 96 come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 2D 5L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Ulm 1846 sit at 0.86 PPG from 14 outings (2W 6D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of SSV Ulm 1846 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hannover 96's home form reads 6W 0D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Hannover 96 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SSV Ulm 1846 have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 0.93 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
Hannover 96's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 2.57 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SSV Ulm 1846 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, SSV Ulm 1846 in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
0
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 43%, SSV Ulm 1846 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hannover 96) and 29% (SSV Ulm 1846).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; SSV Ulm 1846 in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 43% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hannover 96's recent games and 29% of SSV Ulm 1846's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SSV Ulm 1846 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat SSV Ulm 1846 3-2 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.39 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Ulm 1846 outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.01 / defence 0.71 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.70 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 49% | Draw 32% | SSV Ulm 1846 18%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 50%, SSV Ulm 1846 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.